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The majority of the voting data amassed so far in the Democratic primaries heavily contradicts the media narrative that suggests that Bernie Sanders doesn’t perform well in diverse states. The truth is much, much different, especially when you take the results of “Western Saturday” into account.
In just a few hours of voting, Sanders managed to eliminate 22.5% of Hillary Clinton’s 296-delegate lead, destroying her in Alaska, Washington, and Hawaii. And that isn’t even the best part. After weeks of being told that Clinton is far ahead in the pledged delegate race, her monumental margin stands at no more than 54.9% to Bernie’s 45.1%.
That’s right, Clinton is now leading by a single digit.
There are 1,750 pledged delegates that are yet to be awarded across 22 future nominating contests – that’s nearly 45% of all pledged delegates in total. Needless to say, this amounts to some pretty eye-popping numbers, opening up the possibility that Bernie could be the presidential nominee.
Additionally, six of the ten most diverse states in America have held Democratic nominating contests, and both Hillary and Bernie have managed to win three of these contests.
In two states, we saw a substantial underperformance by Hillary as far as pre-election polling was concerned. The RCP polling average in Arizona predicted that she would win with a 30-point lead; instead, she won by 17.7%, and, in fact, lost the live voting to Sanders 52% to 48%.
Meanwhile, in Nevada, she met the expectations set by the 120-hour polls but fell dramatically short of the last poll taken prior to the period – the one that predicted a 23-point Clinton victory instead of the 5.5-point one she got. This allowed Sanders to claim that he’d made up more than 17 points on Clinton in the eight weeks leading up to the Silver State caucuses, and he was right – Clinton’s Nevada win was narrow.
As far as Bernie’s predictions are concerned, he exceeded expectations dramatically – the average prediction was that he would take Hawaii and Alaska by 8 points and Washington by 17. Instead, Sanders won Alaska by 61.5 points, Hawaii by 39.8, and Washington by 45.6 points.
These are very important wins for Sanders. They enable him to grasp his “we will not give up” story more firmly and to present it in a much more believable manner. Additionally, these wins offer the national media a pretty good opportunity to drop its ridiculous narrative that claims that all his supporters are white. In fact, if you still believe the shenanigans, you either don’t understand how much Clinton controls mainstream media, or you don’t pay any attention to domestic politics whatsoever.
Most of us knew exactly what to expect from the media after we saw months of purportedly objective “panels” on CNN and MSNBC, which were comprised entirely of Clinton surrogates or neutral reporters; watching media outlets and their pathetically obvious failures at covering even a single second of election-night speeches by Sanders; cringing as every single larger media organization continued counting super-delegates as though they were earned and confirmed votes, despite an official directive released by the DNC to not tally them until the summertime.
Moreover, most of us knew exactly what to expect from the national media after they ignored the entirety of Sanders’ strong performances in the “middle half” of US states (demographically speaking) – in states ranked 13th through 38th in terms of their white population.
If you take a look at the current standings, you can see that Clinton has a very slight lead in states (1) and delegates (77) – most certainly not a dramatic one. All of this becomes even more interesting when you realize that one of her “win” states, North Carolina, failed to give her a substantial lead. As a matter of fact, some people call North Carolina votes a tie. Sanders’ wins, on the other hand, were all by large margins.
— Meet the Press (@meetthepress) March 27, 2016