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Over the last thirty years, the State of New York has hardly been the center of attention during party primaries. This year, New York is one of the most important remaining states for both the Democratic and the Republican parties. Since we are not really that concerned what is going on with the spiraling-out-of-control Republican Party, we will take a look at what the New York primary means for the proverbial good guys.
New York has traditionally been a state whose politics have mostly been local and whose campaigns, deals and controversies have mostly revolved aroundlocal matters. Those matters have often had nationwide repercussions, but they have still been local. At the most, they have been statewide.
One might say that New York is almost confused by being the center of attention of the entire nation. These are strange days for New York politics. Definitely exciting.
Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have been going around the state, addressing their fans and reinforcing their positions before the polls open on Tuesday. Perhaps the most surprising rally of them all was Sanders’ one in Bronx which attracted almost 20,000 people and which once again showed that the underdog candidate may not be such an underdog candidate after all.
The two Democratic candidates even battled in New York last week in a debate that was definitely New York-like in its ferocity and the abundance of passion coming from both sides. Some people might say a bit too much passion, but we liked it.
There are a couple of really important reasons why New York has all of a sudden become the focal point of the Democratic race for the nomination. The most important reason, of course, is the number of delegates up for grabs in the state.
Apart from California which does not vote until early June, New York awards the highest number of delegates with 291. Considering that Clinton is leading sanders by only 213 delegates, it becomes more than obvious that this is a primary which can have a huge impact on the overall race.
Of course, it would be silly to believe that Sanders could take the lead following the New York primary, but he might close the gap and really bring the heat to the race. Unfortunately for him, Clinton is still leading in the polls.
According to nearly all of the leading polls and analyses, Clinton is the more probable winner of the Democratic New York Primary. The interesting thing, however, is how the polls have moved and how the projections have fluctuated. For instance, some projections have increased Clinton’s chances, while others say that Sanders is now more likely than before to take the majority of the votes.
The good news for Sanders’ supporters is that the polls have been wrong already on a number of occasions, most notably in Michigan. Sanders himself noted that the polls showed he was down by 25 points in certain cases. We all know what happened in Michigan.
The biggest problem for Sanders is that New York City itself has traditionally been Clinton’s town. Even in 2008 when she was pitted against Barack Obama, Clinton still did incredibly well. Some experts said that if she had been running against anyone but Obama, she would have swept the city. NYC isDemocratic party stronghold and the establishment is with Clinton.
Hopefully, we will be seeing a shift and we are up for another surprise. It does not matter how many more delegates Sanders wins in New York, as long as he goes over 50 percent and shows he can count on Democratic establishment votes. We know he already has most other votes in the bag.
In case you missed it, the latest national poll from Wall Street Journal/NBC News is showing that Sanders has picked up four points since the last month’s survey while Clinton suffered somewhat of a slip. More precisely, Sanders is now at 48 percent and Clinton is at 50. In essence, we are talking about an advantage for Clinton that falls within the margin of error.
Tomorrow promises to be an exciting day for sure!